As the war in Ukraine broke out, the Lithuanian people have gained more confidence in the Armed Forces and profession of the military, likewise, the respondents tend to see Lithuanian’s NATO membership and Allied force presence in Lithuania as a particularly positive thing. The trend has been revealed by a public opinion poll carried out last December by request of the Ministry of National Defence.
The confidence in the Lithuanian Armed Forces has soared to long forgotten heights: even 78% of respondents (more than last year by 4 percentage points, pp*). It is the highest public confidence rate since 2013.
86% of respondents said they were in favor of the military profession which is 7 pp more than last year. Likewise, approval of a decision of a close contact to joint the career military has increased by several percentage points too: 62% (more by 2 pp) would support such a decision, while the decision to volunteer for the Continuous Mandatory Initial Military Service would be backed by 70% of respondents (more by 4 pp than in 2021).
57 % of respondents support universal Continuous Mandatory Initial Military Service conscription after school, the percentage of those against it has dropped by 7 pp since 2021.
68% of respondents favored the present 2.5% of GDP defence spending amount or higher.
Grown support to Allied presence
The positive attitude to NATO force presence in Lithuania has become yet stronger supported by as much as 90% of respondents. Generally, Lithuania’s membership in NATO is backed by 89% of the poll participants.
More respondents than ever over the past four years and by 4 pp more than in 2021, i.e. an impressive 85%, agree it is true that the constant mutual Lithuanian and U.S. military training in Lithuania increases the readiness for homeland defence and deters aggressors.
83% of respondents agree that the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battalion deployed in Lithuania since 2017 helps to deter adversarial states.
78% of respondents had no doubts about NATO’s commitment to defend Lithuania whenever necessary.
82% (more by 8 pp) of respondents think Lithuania should provide military assistance to other NATO member states in the case of a military conflict.
Respondents of the poll named Poland, Latvia and Estonia as the friendliest countries to Lithuania in Europe. Poland was mentioned by 69% of respondents or 18 pp more people than in 2021. It may be a result of the intense Poland’s efforts to support Ukraine. Key strategic defence partners of Lithuania are Poland, Germany and the United States.
Solidified people’s will to resist
The poll has revealed a significantly increased amount of people ready to take up arms and peaceful means in defence of Lithuania.
61% of respondents said they would defend by peaceful means, it is a 10 pp increase from 51% in 2021. 53% of respondents said they would turn to armed resistance means, 8% of them would organize armed resistance and 45% would join.
Even though the Lithuanians are displaying an increasing will of self-defence, nearly a half of the poll respondents, 48% (and 4 pp less than last year) admit they are not sufficiently informed about the necessary actions in the event of declaration of mobilization in Lithuania.
We have become versed better on hybrid and information threats
The recognition of the deliberate Russian information influence has grown significantly in 2022. 78%, or 13 pp more than in 2021, agree that the Russian Federation is causing information effects purposefully to change view of the Lithuanian population.
The number of people who agree that Russia and Belarus conduct hybrid attacks (e.g. cyber-attacks, illegal migration, etc.) against EU and NATO member states seeking to destabilize them has grown to 71% or 2 pp more as compared to 2021.
The poll also shows an increase in recognition of information attacks and misinformation – 64% of respondents claimed they would always or often recognize misinformation and information attacks. The number has increased by 6 pp since 2021, while the number of those able to assess the information environment in a critical way has jumped up by 23 pp since 2019.
Strong support to Ukraine
The amount of people who believe Lithuania should provide military assistance to Ukraine has shot up to 79% (15 pp more than in 2021) since Russia began its war in Ukraine.
*the changes are indicated in percentage points.
The public opinion poll was completed in a sample of 1014 residents at the request of the Ministry of National Defence over the period from 15–24 December 2022 by Spinter Research.