The European Union is gathering importance as a security actor. If a decade ago the EU was associated with agriculture and economy, today its agenda includes an increasingly important element of security and defence. Establishment of defence and space portfolio is a reflection of the shift, as well as readiness of the Union to revitalize the EU defence industry and strengthen military capacity of member states. The EU takes more responsibility and the new portfolio opens more opportunity for both Lithuania and the EU, primarily in the area of defence industry.
The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how wars are not confined to frontline battle: adversaries also compete about their defence industries. The grinding rivalry is aimed to produce more, repair faster and gain technological edge over the other. The EU defence industry needs to step up substantially because the pace of its comeback does not match the demand. Second, the EU is investing soon in Ukraine’s defence industry, underused as well. That requires attracting additional funds from the EU budget and member states. A delightful fact, Lithuania is among the countries who has declared concrete commitments for strengthening cooperation with Ukraine’s defence industry.
Long-term nature of the tangible advantage to Lithuania
The new EU defence portfolio will create as much value to Lithuania as to the entire EU. The Defence Commissioner serves for the collective benefit of the EU rather than a particular members states that assigns the official. Commissioner’s staff will be contributed by different EU members.
Questions sometime pop up whether the Commissioner will have the power to allocated funds to Lithuania. The answer is no, none of the Commissioners can cut a piece of the EU budget to his home country just like that. It makes no difference if it is a Lithuanian Commissioner or a delegate of any other member state, they have to agree their actions with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen who is responsible overall vision.
Andrius Kubilius, as a politician from Lithuania, brings an agenda that is important to Lithuania as well. Our success to cooperate with the new Commissioner will primarily depend on our own preparation. We need to do the homework and ensure security of supply chains on the eastern flank, disassociate from untrusted suppliers, ensure better inclusion of small and medium-sized companies thus boosting investment in defence industry. I am confident that the Defence Commissioner is on the same page regarding the needs of our region and will further relevant solutions.
Ambition outbids clarity
President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen laid out the expectations for the Commissioner in her Mission Letter to A. Kubilius. Von der Leyen identified rather ambitious but also quite fluid objectives thus placing the ball is in the court of Kubilius and his team. His next task is to develop the White Paper in 100 days with High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy K. Kallas. It is expected to lay out proposals and start further discussions on the vision of future European defense and financing. Next couple of years will show how much progress the EU will make in defence.
Unfinanced portfolio is hardly significant
The key point the European Defence Commissioner will need to define is the resources in his disposition. A Commissioner without cash cannot bear much influence. The next negotiations on multiannual financial framework (2028-2034) will begin in approximately a year and will proceed through Lithuania’s presidency. The long-term budget will show the level of power the Commissioner will have. Power comes from the capacity to achieve certain results, i.e. a concrete budget. Even though there are regulatory and other powers, finance is the underpinning condition. The success EU members states will be able to achieve in negotiations over the defence budget will reveal if defence actually is important to the EU.
Three priorities for the defence commissioner
First of all, it is maintenance of the transatlantic blond. The EU should not build any structures, standards or organisations that duplicate those of NATO. This direction is particularly important to Lithuania. I am confident that the Commissioner shares this view. Even though the EU has clearly expressed that there would be no double standards, unified standards are sometimes hard to introduce because of certain disagreements between member states. Not all the states are members of both organisations which raises questions why it is that we should adopt specifically NATO standards.
The second key priority is the defence industry. This area is competition-free because everybody wants and hopes that Europe can produce more independently from the third states, like China. It would be a vast advantage to Lithuania whose defence industry at small-medium size. The small-medium companies operating in Lithuania could find a niche in the common supply chain. The EU assistance should not be limited to just a few major companies that dominated the market but rather focus on the small-medium-sized companies and start-ups so that they are able to compete in defence procurements. And finally, it is critical that we have secure supply chains: that is, to have our production made as close to as possible and delivered faster.
Support to Ukraine is possible the most important part. It is not entirely the field of the defence commissioner, however, his actions will still shape the general EU assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine’s EU membership prospects and negotiations will also come to fruition over the course of this term. The Defence and Space Commissioner could propose additional measures of assistance to UKRAine to help integrate its defence industry in the EU programmes. That would accelerate Ukraine’s membership in the EU.
The defence portfolio can yield positive results to the EU and Lithuania. Introduction of a position to assist defence of the member states is very welcome and we should support this effort.
Andrius Kubilius was confirmed as the European Union Commissioner for Defence and Space following the hearing at the European Parliament on November 6.
